Journal article
Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: An assessment of methods
SP Charles, QJ Wang, MUD Ahmad, D Hashmi, A Schepen, G Podger, DE Robertson
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH | Published : 2018
Abstract
Timely and skilful seasonal streamflow forecasts are used by water managers in many regions of the world for seasonal water allocation outlooks for irrigators, reservoir operations, environmental flow management, water markets and drought response strategies. In Australia, the Bayesian joint probability (BJP) statistical approach has been deployed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to provide seasonal streamflow forecasts across the country since 2010. Here we assess the BJP approach, using antecedent conditions and climate indices as predictors, to produce Kharif season (April-September) streamflow forecasts for inflow to Pakistan's two largest upper Indus Basin (UIB) water supply dams..
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Funding Acknowledgements
The Pakistan Mission of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade provided funds for this study through the Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio Indus project. CSIRO provided additional support through its Land and Water portfolio. We thank the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for sharing datasets and the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority Glacier Monitoring Research Centre (WAPDA-GMRC) for sharing datasets and the SRM used in this collaborative work. Thanks also to Luis Neumann and Tony Zhao, CSIRO Land and Water, for help and advice. We express our gratitude to the two anonymous reviewers and the editor, Andy Wood, for their input, which helped improve the paper. We also acknowledge helpful comments received from Muhammad Fraz Ismail regarding the SRM.