Experimental guidance for eliciting beliefs with the Stochastic Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism
Ingrid Burfurd, Tom Wilkening
JOURNAL OF THE ECONOMIC SCIENCE ASSOCIATION-JESA | SPRINGER | Published : 2018
We compare different implementations of the Stochastic Becker–DeGroot–Marschak (SBDM) belief elicitation mechanism, which is theoretically elegant but challenging to implement. In a first experiment, we compare three common formats of the mechanism in terms of speed and data quality. We find that all formats yield reports with similar levels of accuracy and precision, but that the instructions and reporting format adapted from Hao and Houser (J Risk Uncertain 44(2):161–180 2012) is significantly faster to implement. We use this format in a second experiment in which we vary the delivery method and quiz procedure. Dropping the pre-experiment quiz significantly compromises the accuracy of subj..View full abstract
Awarded by Australian Research Council through the Discovery Early Career Research Award
We thank Amy Corman, Laboratory Manager at the University of Melbourne's Experimental Economics Lab. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Australian Research Council through the Discovery Early Career Research Award DE140101014 as well as the Faculty of Business and Economics at the University of Melbourne.