Bayesian Prediction of Punch-Through Probability for Spudcans in Stiff-over-Soft Clay

Abstract

This paper illustrates a Bayesian approach to the estimation of the prior and in-operation probability of punch-through of spudcans in stiff-over-soft clay stratigraphies. Prior probabilities of occurrence of punch-through (i.e., before installation) are estimated spatially for couples of depth-load values based on probabilistic implementation of analytical models obtained from LDFE (large deformation finite element) analyses. Subsequently, in the course of the installation process, monitoring data are used to update probability values on the basis of load-displacement curves which are presumable on the basis of geotechnical and geometric features of the soil-structure system. Load-displacem..