Deterministic and probabilistic advances in the analysis of Spudcan behaviour

Abstract

This paper presents recent advances in the prediction of the installation of jack-up platforms. New analytical models for spudcan installations in clays, sand-over-clay and stiff-over-soft clays are reviewed and compared to the existing methods in the recently released ISO 19905-1 standard. The ability of each to retrospectively simulate databases of field and centrifuge model tests are summarised and conclusions are drawn on whether or not modifications to the ISO document are warranted. The paper also demonstrates how deterministic approaches commonly used in jack-up assessment can be transformed into and completed by probabilistic predictions. Prior predictions of jack-up installations ca..