Journal article

The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities

Ada WC Yan, Andrew J Black, James M McCaw, Nicolas Rebuli, Joshua Ross, Annalisa J Swan, Roslyn Hickson

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES | ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC | Published : 2018

Abstract

Assessing the risk of disease spread between communities is important in our highly connected modern world. However, the impact of disease- and population-specific factors on the time taken for an epidemic to spread between communities, as well as the impact of stochastic disease dynamics on this spreading time, are not well understood. In this study, we model the spread of an acute infection between two communities ('patches') using a susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) metapopulation model. We develop approximations to efficiently evaluate the probability of a major outbreak in a second patch given disease introduction in a source patch, and the distribution of the time taken for this to ..

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Grants

Awarded by Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award


Awarded by Australian Research Council Future Fellowship


Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Centre of Australia Centre for Research Excellence Policy Relevant Infectious disease Simulation and Mathematical Modelling (PRISM2)


Funding Acknowledgements

A. W. C. Y. was supported by an ACS Foundation Scholarship and an Australian Postgraduate Award (now Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship). A. J. B. was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DE160100690). J. V. R. is supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT130100254). A. W. C. Y., J. M. M. and J. V. R. are supported by the National Health and Medical Research Centre of Australia Centre for Research Excellence Policy Relevant Infectious disease Simulation and Mathematical Modelling (PRISM<SUP>2</SUP>; 1078068).