Journal article

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact-Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

LJ Harrington, D Frame, AD King, FEL Otto

Geophysical Research Letters | American Geophysical Union | Published : 2018


In the last decade, climate mitigation policy has galvanized around staying below specified thresholds of global mean temperature, with an understanding that exceeding these thresholds may result in dangerous interference of the climate system. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change texts have developed thresholds in which the aim is to limit warming to well below 2 °C of warming above preindustrial levels, with an additional aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, denoting a specific threshold of global mean temperatures as a target for avoiding damaging climate impacts implicitly obscures potentially significant regional variations in the magnitude of these projected impacts..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by European Research Council (ERC)

Awarded by Natural Environment Research Council

Awarded by Australian Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The authors would also like to thank the providers of the ETCCDI output, calculated for the different CMIP5 runs, which were freely obtained from the Environment Canada CLIMDEX website, L.J.H. acknowledges support from the Transition into the Anthropocene (TITAN) project, funded by a European Research Council (ERC) Advanced Grant (EC-320691), and the MaRIUS project: Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of droughts and water Scarcity, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L010364/1). D.J.F. and L.J.H. acknowledge support from the New Zealand Deep South National Science Challenge. A.D.K. was supported by the Australian Research Council (CE110001028 and DE180100638).