Journal article

On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C of Global Warming

Andrew D King, Reto Knutti, Peter Uhe, Daniel M Mitchell, Sophie C Lewis, Julie M Arblaster, Nicolas Freychet

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2018

Abstract

Given the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the target 1.5° and 2°C levels above preindustrial conditions. It is challenging to quantify changes across a small increment of global warming, so a pattern-scaling approach may be considered. Here we investigate the validity of such an approach by comprehensively examining how well local temperatures and warming trends in a 1.5°C world predict local temperatures at global warming of 2°C. Ensembles of transient coupled climate simulations from multiple models under different scenarios were compared and individual model responses were analyzed. For many places, the mult..

View full abstract

University of Melbourne Researchers

Grants

Awarded by ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes


Awarded by Australian Research Council


Awarded by Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER)


Funding Acknowledgements

We thank Daithi Stone and David Karoly for commenting on the manuscript prior to submission. Andrew King and Julie Arblaster were supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (Grant CE170100023). Andrew King was also supported by the Australian Research Council (Grant DE180100638). Sophie Lewis was supported by the Australian Research Council (Grant DE160100092). Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER62402 and the National Science Foundation. We thank the NCI National Facility in Australia for providing computing support and access to the CMIP5 and ERA-Interim data. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output.