Journal article

Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations

EM Fischer, U Beyerle, CF Schleussner, AD King, R Knutti

Geophysical Research Letters | American Geophysical Union | Published : 2018


Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that model‐based estimates of changes in the probability of temperature extremes at 1.5 °C global warming regionally differ if quantified using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) instead of using a fully coupled climate model. Based on the identical climate model used in two experimental setups, we demonstrate that particularly over the tropics and Australia estimates of the changes in the odds of annual temperature extremes can be up to more than a factor of 5 to 10 larger using prescribed SSTs rather than a fully coupled model configuration. The two experimental designs imply ..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by Australian Research Council

Awarded by German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Funding Acknowledgements

Andrew D. King received funding from the Australian Research Council (DE180100638 and CE170100023). Carl-Friedrich Schleussner acknowledges support by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01LS1613A). The output of the AMIP simulations is accessible through