Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations
EM Fischer, U Beyerle, CF Schleussner, AD King, R Knutti
Geophysical Research Letters | American Geophysical Union | Published : 2018
Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that model‐based estimates of changes in the probability of temperature extremes at 1.5 °C global warming regionally differ if quantified using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) instead of using a fully coupled climate model. Based on the identical climate model used in two experimental setups, we demonstrate that particularly over the tropics and Australia estimates of the changes in the odds of annual temperature extremes can be up to more than a factor of 5 to 10 larger using prescribed SSTs rather than a fully coupled model configuration. The two experimental designs imply ..View full abstract
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Awarded by Australian Research Council
Awarded by German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Andrew D. King received funding from the Australian Research Council (DE180100638 and CE170100023). Carl-Friedrich Schleussner acknowledges support by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01LS1613A). The output of the AMIP simulations is accessible through http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/data.html.