Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Environmental Outcomes in the Context of Natural Climate Variability
Jun Wang, Rory Nathan, Avril Horne
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT | ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS | Published : 2018
Climate change has emerged as a key threat to river ecosystems. This study presents a generic, conceptual framework for assessing the significance of climate change impact for ecological outcomes. Within the framework, multiple sequences of streamflows with a length that is "critical" to target species are derived under current and future climates; ecological responses are assessed using models that consider the influence of flow sequencing; the ranges of ecological responses under future and current climates are compared to indicate the significance of impact. This framework allows the degree of future climate risks to ecosystems to be assessed with reference to the range of behavior under ..View full abstract
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Awarded by ARC Linkage Project
Dr. Avril Horne was funded by ARC Linkage Project LP130100174 and DE180100550. The project was partially funded by Melbourne Water. We acknowledge discussions with their environmental flows team, in particular, Cheryl Edwards. The water resource model data used for the study was generously provided by Melbourne Water. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, and Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research) for producing and making available their model output.