Journal article

The role of geospatial hotspots in the spatial spread of tuberculosis in rural Ethiopia: a mathematical model

Debebe Shaweno, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Emma S McBryde

Royal Society Open Science | ROYAL SOC | Published : 2018

Abstract

Geospatial tuberculosis (TB) hotspots are hubs of TB transmission both within and across community groups. We aimed to quantify the extent to which these hotspots account for the spatial spread of TB in a high-burden setting. We developed spatially coupled models to quantify the spread of TB from geographical hotspots to distant regions in rural Ethiopia. The population was divided into three 'patches' based on their proximity to transmission hotspots, namely hotspots, adjacent regions and remote regions. The models were fitted to 5-year notification data aggregated by the metapopulation structure. Model fitting was achieved with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm using a Poisson likelihood to ..

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