Y-profile evidence: Close paternal relatives and mixtures

Abstract

We recently introduced a new approach to the evaluation of weight of evidence (WoE) for Y-chromosome profiles. Rather than attempting to calculate match probabilities, which is particularly problematic for modern Y-profiles with high mutation rates, we proposed using simulation to describe the distribution of the number of males in the population with a matching Y-profile, both the unconditional distribution and conditional on a database frequency of the profile. Here we further validate the new approach by showing that our results are robust to assumptions about the allelic ladder and the founder haplotypes, and we extend the approach in two important directions. Firstly, forensic databases..