Using Forecast Temporal Variability to Evaluate Model Behavior
Carolyn A Reynolds, Elizabeth A Satterfield, Craig H Bishop
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2015
The statistics of model temporal variability ought to be the same as those of the filtered version of reality that the model is designed to represent. Here, simple diagnostics are introduced to quantify temporal variability on different time scales and are then applied to NCEP and CMC global ensemble forecasting systems. These diagnostics enable comparison of temporal variability in forecasts with temporal variability in the initial states from which the forecasts are produced. They also allow for an examination of how day-to-day variability in the forecast model changes as forecast integration time increases. Because the error in subsequent analyses will differ, it is shown that forecast te..View full abstract
Awarded by NRL Base Program
This research is supported by the Chief of Naval Research through the NRL Base Program, PE 0601153N. The forecasts were obtained from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data portal at ECMWF. We thank three anonymous reviewers for very conscientious critiques that have helped us improve the manuscript.