Regional Ensemble Forecasts Using the Ensemble Transform Technique
Craig H Bishop, Teddy R Holt, Jason Nachamkin, Sue Chen, Justin G McLay, James D Doyle, William T Thompson
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2009
A computationally inexpensive ensemble transform (ET) method for generating high-resolution initial perturbations for regional ensemble forecasts is introduced. The method provides initial perturbations that (i) have an initial variance consistent with the best available estimates of initial condition error variance, (ii) are dynamically conditioned by a process similar to that used in the breeding technique, (iii) add to zero at the initial time, (iv) are quasi-orthogonal and equally likely, and (v) partially respect mesoscale balance constraints by ensuring that each initial perturbation is a linear sum of forecast perturbations from the preceding forecast. The technique is tested using es..View full abstract
Awarded by ONR
CHB, TH, JN, WTT, SC, and JD acknowledge support from ONR Project Element 0602435N. Computational resources were supported in part by a grant of High Performance Computing (HPC) time from the Department of Defense (DoD) Major Shared Resource Center at NAVOCEANO in Stennis, MS, and the DoD HPC Distributed Center at FNMOC in Monterey, CA.