The Local Ensemble Tangent Linear Model: an enabler for coupled model 4D-Var

Abstract

A leading Data Assimilation (DA) technique in meteorology is 4D-Var which relies on the Tangent Linear Model (TLM) of the nonlinear model and its adjoint. The difficulty of building and maintaining traditional TLMs and adjoints of coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere–etc. models is daunting. On the other hand, coupled model ensemble forecasts are readily available. Here, we show how an ensemble forecast can be used to construct an accurate Local Ensemble TLM (LETLM) and adjoint of the entire coupled system. The method features a local influence region containing all the variables that could possibly influence the time evolution of some target variable(s) near the centre of the region. We prove that..