Ensemble transformation and adaptive observations

Abstract

A meteorological application of the ensemble transform technique is explored by taking an example from the Fronts and Atlantic Storm Tracks Experiment (FASTEX). It is shown that the ensemble transform technique would precisely recover the prediction error covariance matrices associated with each possible deployment of observational resources provided that estimates of the analysis error covariance matrix are precise, the ensemble perturbations span the vector space of all possible perturbations, and the evolution of errors are linear and perfectly modeled. When these conditions are not met, the approach provides a rational framework for combining informed guesses about the analysis error cov..