Ensemble transform Kalman filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP

Abstract

The initial perturbations used for the operational global ensemble prediction system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are generated through the breeding method with a regional rescaling mechanism. Limitations of the system include the use of a climatologically fixed estimate of the analysis error variance and the lack of an orthogonalization in the breeding procedure. The Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) method is a natural extension of the concept of breeding and, as shown by Wang and Bishop, can be used to generate ensemble perturbations that can potentially ameliorate these shortcomings. In the present paper, a spherical simplex 10-member ETKF ensemble, using th..