Wind and Wave Extremes from Atmosphere and Wave Model Ensembles
Alberto Meucci, Ian R Young, Oyvind Breivik
Journal of Climate | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2018
The present work develops an innovative approach to wind speed and significant wave height extreme value analysis. The approach is based on global atmosphere-wave model ensembles, the members of which are propagated in time from the best estimate of the initial state, with slight perturbations to the initial conditions, to estimate the uncertainties connected to model representations of reality. The low correlation of individual ensemble member forecasts at advanced lead times guarantees their independence and allows us to perform inference statistics. The advantage of ensemble probabilistic forecasts is that it is possible to synthesize an equivalent dataset of duration far longer than the ..View full abstract
Awarded by Australian Research Council
Awarded by Research Council of Norway through the project ExWaMar
IRY gratefully acknowledges the support of the Australian Research Council through Grants DP130100215 and DP160100738. OB gratefully acknowledges support from the Research Council of Norway through the project ExWaMar (Grant 256466) and from the European Research Area for Climate Services through the ERA-4CS project WINDSURFER. The authors would also like to acknowledge Ole Johan Aarnes for supplying the code used by Breivik et al. (2014) to calculate their confidence limits.