Journal article

Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges

Yann Robiou du Pont, Malte Meinshausen



Under the bottom-up architecture of the Paris Agreement, countries pledge Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Current NDCs individually align, at best, with divergent concepts of equity and are collectively inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. We show that the global 2030-emissions of NDCs match the sum of each country adopting the least-stringent of five effort-sharing allocations of a well-below 2 °C-scenario. Extending such a self-interested bottom-up aggregation of equity might lead to a median 2100-warming of 2.3 °C. Tightening the warming goal of each country's effort-sharing approach to aspirational levels of 1.1 °C and 1.3 °C could achieve the 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C-thr..

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Awarded by Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship

Funding Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the work of modellers behind the IPCC-AR5 emissions scenarios. M.M. is supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship (grant number FT130100809). Great thanks to Peter Christoff, Joeri Rogelj and Anita Talberg for their comments on the manuscript, and to Johannes Gutschow and Louise Jeffery for their help with the PRIMAP database and with MAGICC.