Journal article
If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods?
A Sharma, C Wasko, DP Lettenmaier
Water Resources Research | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018WR023749
Abstract
Despite evidence of increasing precipitation extremes, corresponding evidence for increases in flooding remains elusive. If anything, flood magnitudes are decreasing despite widespread claims by the climate community that if precipitation extremes increase, floods must also. In this commentary we suggest reasons why increases in extreme rainfall are not resulting in corresponding increases in flooding. Among the possible mechanisms responsible, we identify decreases in antecedent soil moisture, decreasing storm extent, and decreases in snowmelt. We argue that understanding the link between changes in precipitation and changes in flooding is a grand challenge for the hydrologic community and ..
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Funding Acknowledgements
This opinion article resulted from two invited presentations by the authors at session H21L ("Advances in Characterizing Extreme Storms, Flood Risk, and Flood Risk Management") at the 2017 New Orleans Fall AGU meeting. All authors acknowledge the organizers and attendees of the session for the helpful discussion that ensued. Ashish Sharma acknowledges the contributions of past students and postdoctoral fellows, which helped shape the opinions expressed here. Conrad Wasko acknowledges funding support from the University of Melbourne McKenzie Fellowship. Alberto Montanari, Andreas Prein, and two other WRR reviewers are thanked for their insightful comments on the paper.