Journal article

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting with a Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula

Ruben Loaiza-Maya, M Smith

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics | Taylor & Francis | Published : 2020


There is a growing interest in allowing for asymmetry in the density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In multivariate time series, this can be achieved with a copula model, where both serial and cross-sectional dependence is captured by a copula function, and the margins are nonparametric. Yet most existing copulas cannot capture heteroskedasticity well, which is a feature of many economic and financial time series. To do so, we propose a new copula created by the inversion of a multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility model, and show how to estimate it using Bayesian methods. We fit the copula model to real-time data on five quarterly U.S. economic and financial variable..

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University of Melbourne Researchers