Modelling the number of quitters needed to achieve New Zealand's Smokefree 2025 goal for Maori and non-Maori

Abstract

AIM: To estimate the numbers of people required to quit smoking in New Zealand to achieve the Smokefree 2025 goal and to compare these with current levels of quitting. METHODS: We used the established BODE3 tobacco forecasting model to project smoking prevalence separately for Māori and non-Māori to 2025 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. We then determined by what factor current annual cessation rates would have to increase to achieve an adult smoking prevalence of under 5% by the year 2025, while annual smoking uptake rates continued to follow BAU patterns. Comparisons were also made in terms of estimated current long-term quitters arising from official reports of smoking cessation ..