Modelling the number of quitters needed to achieve New Zealand's Smokefree 2025 goal for Maori and non-Maori

Abstract

Aim To estimate the numbers of people required to quit smoking in New Zealand to achieve the Smokefree 2025 goal and to compare these with current levels of quitting. Method We used the established BODE3 tobacco forecasting model to project smoking prevalence separately for Mori and non-Mori to 2025 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. We then determined by what factor current annual cessation rates would have to increase to achieve an adult smoking prevalence of under 5% by the year 2025, while annual smoking uptake rates continued to follow BAU patterns. Comparisons were also made in terms of estimated current long-term quitters arising from official reports of smoking cessation serv..