Is the positive predictive value of high-grade cytology in predicting high-grade cervical disease falling due to HPV vaccination?

Abstract

A fall in the positive predictive value (PPV) of cytological predictions of high-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesions (HSIL) or adenocarcinoma-in-situ (AIS) has been predicted in the post-HPV vaccination era due to the decrease in underlying prevalence of cervical lesions. Data was extracted from the Victorian Cervical Screening Registry including cervical cytology tests taken between 2000 and 2016 and any subsequent histology performed within 6 months of the cytology. PPV was calculated for each age group (<20, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70+ years) and calendar year. The x2 (chi-square) test was used to identify significant trends in PPV over time in each age group ..