Journal article

A scenario analysis of future Hong Kong age and labour force profiles and its implications

Chris J Lloyd, Raymond Kwok, Paul SF Yip

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) | Wiley | Published : 2019


The consequences of reduced fertility and mortality on the age distribution are an issue for most developed countries, but especially for the ‘Asian tiger’ economies. We use functional data analysis forecasting techniques to project the population of Hong Kong. Our projections include error estimates that allow for forecasting error as well as exogenous variations of fertility and migration numbers. We separate out the effects of pure demographic shifts from projected behavioural changes in labour force participation.This enables us to look at the kinds of changes in labour force participation that would be required to offset the aging effects that we estimate.


Awarded by Hong Kong 'Strategic public policy research' grant

Funding Acknowledgements

The third author was supported by a Hong Kong 'Strategic public policy research' grant (SPPR-HKU-12).