Issues with modelling the current and future distribution of invasive pathogens

Abstract

Correlative species distribution models can be used to produce spatially explicit estimates of environmental suitability for organisms. This process can provide meaningful information for a range of purposes (e.g. estimating a species' current or future distribution, estimating dispersal limits, predicting occupancy for conservation planning) but, like all statistical exercises, is subject to numerous assumptions and can be influenced by several sources of potential bias. 2. In this issue of Journal of Applied Ecology, we (Murray 2011) employ a correlative species distribution model for infection with the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), cause of amphibian chytridiomycosis, to d..