Predicting the natural suicide rate in Belgium

Abstract

This paper presents results of a time series (1950-1997) and an ecological study of suicide and homicide in Belgium and its ten provinces. Study 1 was based on Durkheim’s classic theory of suicide and Henry and Short’s model of suicide and homicide. Study 2 calculated the ‘natural suicide rate’, i.e. suicide rate if the social conditions are made ‘ideal’ (zero divorce and unemployment rates). Study 1 found that the rates of suicide in Belgium over time were positively associated with unemployment and divorce rates, and negatively correlated with marriage and birth rates. On the level of provinces only population density and ethnicity correlated with suicide. Contrary to Henry and Short’s the..