Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays

Abstract

The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county‐wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (ps). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions—polygon‐only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon's ps and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon‐only condition replicated the..