Forecasting wildlife die-offs from extreme heat events

Abstract

Extreme heat events pose increasing challenges to biodiversity conservation worldwide, yet our ability to predict the time, place and magnitude of their impacts on wildlife is limited. Extreme heat events in Australia are known to kill thousands of flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.), and such die-offs are expected to become more frequent and widespread in the future under anthropogenic climate change. There is a growing need for predicting when and where such heat-related die-offs would occur, to facilitate short-term wildlife management and conservation actions. In this study, we used gridded hourly air temperature forecasts [Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS-R) Nume..