Journal article

Climate Model Dependence and the Ensemble Dependence Transformation of CMIP Projections

G Abramowitz, CH Bishop

Journal of Climate | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2015

Abstract

Obtaining multiple estimates of future climate for a given emissions scenario is key to understanding the likelihood and uncertainty associated with climate-related impacts. This is typically done by collating model estimates from different research institutions internationally with the assumption that they constitute independent samples. Heuristically, however, several factors undermine this assumption: shared treatment of processes between models, shared observed data for evaluation, and even shared model code. Here, a “perfect model” approach is used to test whether a previously proposed ensemble dependence transformation (EDT) can improve twenty-first-century Coupled Model Intercompariso..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Grants

Awarded by Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science


Awarded by U.S. Office of Naval Research Grant


Funding Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the support of the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028). CHB gratefully acknowledges support from the U.S. Office of Naval Research Grant N0001413WX00008. The GPCP combined precipitation data were developed and computed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Laboratory for Atmospheres as a contribution to the GEWEX Global Precipitation Climatology Project. GPCP data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, Colorado, from their website (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/). All analysis and transformation code are available from the corresponding author upon request.