Journal article

Planning for the future: Modelling daily emergency department presentations in an Australian capital city

Fern J McAllan, Diana Egerton-Warburton, Gerard O'Reilly, Tracey J Weiland, George A Jelinek



OBJECTIVE: To describe and model a decade of ED presentations in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia, from July 2000 to June 2010 and to validate the model of ED presentations by testing the model's performance in forecasting the subsequent 2 year period of daily presentations, from July 2010 to June 2012. METHODS: Retrospective analyses of prospectively collected data sourced from the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset were performed and included 13 public hospitals. Time series modelling involved unobserved components modelling and forward selection of variables using incidence rate ratios. Forecasting with the model and validation were performed using the 2 year period up to June 2012. Mod..

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