Lung cancer mortality in Australia in the twenty-first century: How many lives can be saved with effective tobacco control?

Abstract

Objectives: To estimate the number of past and future lung cancer deaths that have already been averted by tobacco control initiatives in Australia, and to estimate the number of additional deaths averted under various smoking scenarios. Methods: We predicted lung cancer mortality rates and case numbers to 2100 using a previously validated generalized linear model based on age, birth cohort and population cigarette smoking exposure. We estimated the impact of various tobacco control scenarios: ‘actual tobacco control’ (incorporating the aggregate effect of past and current taxation, plain packaging, mass media campaigns and other initiatives) and scenarios where 10%, 5% and 0% smoking preval..