Journal article

Projected increases in daily to decadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall

Josephine R Brown, Aurel F Moise, Robert A Colman



Changes in rainfall variability in future climate will pose challenges for adaptation. To evaluate changes in Asian-Australian monsoon wet season rainfall, daily data from historical and future (Representative Concentration Pathway “RCP8.5”) climate simulations are band pass-filtered to isolate variability on near-daily, weekly, monthly, intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and decadal time scales. This method is used to quantify changes in variability from 35 coupled climate models for each time scale over the Australian, South Asian, and East Asian monsoon domains. In nearly all cases, the median model change is positive, indicating increased rainfall variability, although with large model ..

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Funding Acknowledgements

The research presented in this paper was jointly supported by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme. We thank Andrew Dowdy and Simon Grainger for their comments on the manuscript. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table S1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provided coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. All CMIP5 model output used in this study can be obtained from the online database as listed at the PCMDI website: For further information regarding model and observational data, analysis methods, and scripts, contact the first author.