Journal article
Will a warmer world mean a wetter or drier Australian monsoon?
JR Brown, AF Moise, R Colman, H Zhang
Journal of Climate | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2016
Abstract
Multimodel mean projections of the Australian summer monsoon show little change in precipitation in a future warmer climate, even under the highest emission scenario. However, there is large uncertainty in this projection, with model projections ranging from around a 40% increase to a 40% decrease in summer monsoon precipitation. To understand the source of this model uncertainty, a set of 33 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) is divided into groups based on their future precipitation projections (DRY, MID, and WET terciles). The DRY model mean has enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming across the equatorial Pacific, with maximum increases i..
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Funding Acknowledgements
The research presented in this paper was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Programme, jointly funded by the Department of the Environment, the Bureau of Meteorology, and CSIRO. We thank Robin Chadwick, Ian Smith, and Hanh Nguyen for useful comments on the manuscript. The comments of two anonymous reviewers also improved the manuscript. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups ( listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.