Journal article
Exploring qualitative regional climate projections: A case study for Nauru
JN Brown, JR Brown, C Langlais, R Colman, JS Risbey, BF Murphy, A Moise, AS Gupta, I Smith, L Wilson, S Narsey, M Grose, MC Wheeler
Climate Research | INTER-RESEARCH | Published : 2013
DOI: 10.3354/cr01190
Abstract
Coupled General Circulation Models simulate broad-scale climate patterns and are standard tools for understanding potential changes to the climate system. Climate change projection information is required at the local scale for adaptation planning. Model skill can be limited at this scale due to model biases and uncertainties. Pacific Islands are one such example, particularly Nauru which lies at the intersection of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the Western Pacific Monsoon, the oceanic warm pool and the ENSO zone of influence. In light of such constraints, a qualitative climate projection approach is presented whereby projections are based on expected changes to the broad-scale ..
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Funding Acknowledgements
We thank P. Whetton and K. Hennessy for discussions and advice. This research was conducted with the support of the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program funded by AusAID in collaboration with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, and delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). This research is part of the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and the Wealth from Oceans Flagship. We thank the PCMDI and the World Climate Research Programs Working Group on Coupled Modelling for their roles in making available the CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model datasets. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy. More details on model documentation are available at the PCMDI website (www-pcmdi.llnl.gov). ECMWF ERA-I data used in this study have been provided by ECMWF.