Journal article

Impact of MPEX Upsonde Observations on Ensemble Analyses and Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Convective Event over Oklahoma

Stacey M Hitchcock, Michael C Coniglio, Kent H Knopfmeier



This study examines the impact of assimilating three radiosonde profiles obtained from ground-based mobile systems during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) on analyses and convection-permitting model forecasts of the 31 May 2013 convective event over Oklahoma. These radiosonde profiles (in addition to standard observations) are assimilated into a 36-member mesoscale ensemble using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) before embedding a convection-permitting (3 km) grid and running a full ensemble of 9-h forecasts. This set of 3-km forecasts is compared to a control run that does not assimilate theMPEX soundings. The analysis of low- to midlevel moisture is impacted the most by the a..

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Awarded by NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-University of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreement

Awarded by National Science Foundation

Awarded by Directorate For Geosciences

Funding Acknowledgements

The authors thank Scott Steiger of SUNY Oswego for providing their sounding data. Helpful comments and suggestions were provided by Glen Romine, Dusty Wheatley, Adam Clark, and two anonymous reviewers. A number of people in the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology community and the Colorado State Atmospheric science department provided support, feedback, and valuable discussion; thanks in particular to the following: committee members Alan Shapiro and Xuguang Wang, Dave Parsons, Nicholas Szapiro, Russ Schumacher, Greg Herman, and Erik Nielsen. We thank the Field Observing Facilities Support team at NSSL, particularly Sean Waugh, for constructing the mobile sounding systems for MPEX. A portion of the computing for this project was performed at the OU Supercomputing Center for Education and Research (OSCER) at the University of Oklahoma (OU). This project was supported by funding from the NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-University of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreement NA11OAR4320072, the U.S. Department of Commerce, and by the National Science Foundation Award 1230114.