Journal article

Benchmarking the selection of probability neutral hydrologic design floods for use in 2D hydraulic models

M Scorah, D Stephens, R Nathan

Australasian Journal of Water Resources | Taylor & Francis Australasia | Published : 2019


In the 2016 release of Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), variability of flood influencing factors (such as losses and temporal pattern) is now explicitly considered through application of Monte Carlo and ensemble approaches. However, hydrologic models are commonly an input for 2D hydraulic modelling, where computational constraints prevent a large number of floods from being modelled. Practitioners are therefore often required to select ‘representative floods’ for use in hydraulic modelling. When making this selection there is an implicit assumption that the probability of rainfall directly corresponds to the probability of flood levels—that is, the transformation is ‘probability neutral..

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University of Melbourne Researchers