Individualized Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in 1,676 Individuals at Clinical High Risk: Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Aaltsje Malda; Nynke Boonstra; Hans Barf; Steven de Jong; Andre Aleman; Jean Addington; Marita Pruessner; Dorien Nieman; Lieuwe de Haan; Anthony Morrison; Anita Riecher-Roessler; Erich Studerus; Stephan Ruhrmann; Frauke Schultze-Lutter; Suk Kyoon An; Shinsuke Koike; Kiyoto Kasai; Barnaby Nelson; Patrick McGorry; Stephen Wood; Ashleigh Lin; Alison Y Yung; Magdalena Kotlicka-Antczak; Marco Armando; Stefano Vicari; Masahiro Katsura; Kazunori Matsumoto; Sarah Durston; Tim Ziermans; Lex Wunderink; Helga Ising; Mark van der Gaag; Paolo Fusar-Poli; Gerdina Hendrika Maria Pijnenborg

Journal article

Individualized Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in 1,676 Individuals at Clinical High Risk: Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Aaltsje Malda, Nynke Boonstra, Hans Barf, Steven de Jong, Andre Aleman, Jean Addington, Marita Pruessner, Dorien Nieman, Lieuwe de Haan, Anthony Morrison, Anita Riecher-Roessler, Erich Studerus, Stephan Ruhrmann, Frauke Schultze-Lutter, Suk Kyoon An, Shinsuke Koike, Kiyoto Kasai, Barnaby Nelson, Patrick McGorry, Stephen Wood Show all

FRONTIERS IN PSYCHIATRY | FRONTIERS MEDIA SA | Published : 2019

DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00345

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Abstract

Background: The Clinical High Risk state for Psychosis (CHR-P) has become the cornerstone of modern preventive psychiatry. The next stage of clinical advancements rests on the ability to formulate a more accurate prognostic estimate at the individual subject level. Individual Participant Data Meta-Analyses (IPD-MA) are robust evidence synthesis methods that can also offer powerful approaches to the development and validation of personalized prognostic models. The aim of the study was to develop and validate an individualized, clinically based prognostic model for forecasting transition to psychosis from a CHR-P stage. Methods: A literature search was performed between January 30, 2016, and F..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Stephen Wood Author Centre for Youth Mental Health

Patrick McGorry Author Centre for Youth Mental Health

Barnaby Nelson Author Centre for Youth Mental Health

Alison Yung Author Centre for Youth Mental Health

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Awarded by Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw)

Awarded by Netherlands Health Research Council, ZonMW

Awarded by Koeln Fortune Program/Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne

Awarded by German Federal Ministry for Education and Research, BMBF

Awarded by Korea Healthcare Technology R&D Project, Ministry for Health, Welfare and Family Affairs, Republic of Korea

Awarded by National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) - Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning, Republic of Korea

Awarded by JSPS KAKENHI

Awarded by AMED

Awarded by King's College London Confidence in Concept award from the Medical Research Council (MRC)

Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)

Awarded by NHMRC

Awarded by Polish Science National Centre

Awarded by Brain and Behavior Research Foundation

Awarded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan

Awarded by MRC

Awarded by Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Funding Acknowledgements

For the open access publication fees, there is funding received from the University of Groningen, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences, GGZ Friesland Mental Health Institute, and GGZ Drenthe Mental Health Institute, that will equally share the costs. ADAPT: JA received funding from NIMH and Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research. CAYR: Research at CAYR was supported by a NARSAD Young Investigator Award to MP. DUPS: This project was supported by a research grant from The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw, 2630.0001). EDIE-NL: MG received funding from Netherlands Health Research Council, ZonMW (120510001). EDIE-UK: This research was supported by research grants from the Netherlands Health Research Council, ZonMW and the Stanley Medical Research Institute. FEPSY: This project was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation no. 3200-057216.99, no. 3200-057216.99, and no. PBBSB-106936, the Nora van Meeuwen-Haefliger Stiftung, Basel (CH). FETZ: Data analyses were supported by a grant from the Koeln Fortune Program/Faculty of Medicine, University of Cologne (projects 8/2005 and 27/2006); the Awareness Program was supported from 2000 to 2005 by a grant from the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research, BMBF (grant 01 GI 0235). GRAPE: This work was supported by a grant of the Korea Healthcare Technology R&D Project, Ministry for Health, Welfare and Family Affairs, Republic of Korea (A090096) and by a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning, Republic of Korea (No. 2010-0026833, No. 2017R1A2B3008214). INSTEP: This study was supported in part by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP16H06395, 16H0639X, 16K21720 & 17H05921, AMED under Grant Number JP18dm0307001 & JP18dm0307004, UTokyo Center for Integrative Science of Human Behavior (CiSHuB), and the International Research Center for Neurointelligence (WPIIRCN) at The University of Tokyo Institutes for Advanced Study (UTIAS). OASIS: PF-P was supported by the King's College London Confidence in Concept award from the Medical Research Council (MRC) (MC_PC_16048). This study also represents independent research partially funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. PACE: funding support of National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Program grants 350241 and 566529 and the Colonial Foundation. BN was supported by an NHMRC Senior Research Fellowship (1137687), SW was supported by an NHMRC Clinical Career Developmental Award (359223), and AY was supported by an NHMRC Senior Research Fellowship (566593). PORT: Research activities regarding ARMS individuals included in the PORT program are financed by the Polish Science National Centre, grant no. NN402 1793 34. ROME: MA was supported by the Brain and Behavior Research Foundation (21278) (formerly NARSAD). SAFE: the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) Grant Numbers 17790803, 19591336, 22390219, and 25461747, Japan. DUPS-U: None. The funders had no influence on the design, collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data, writing of the report, and decision to submit this article for publication.