Journal article

Hardening or softening? An observational study of changes to the prevalence of hardening indicators in Victoria, Australia, 2001-2016

Emily Brennan, Elizabeth M Greenhalgh, Sarah J Durkin, Michelle M Scollo, Linda Hayes, Melanie A Wakefield

TOBACCO CONTROL | BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2020

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The hardening hypothesis predicts that as smoking prevalence declines, remaining smokers will be more heavily addicted to nicotine and/or less interested in quitting. We tested this hypothesis in a population exposed to a comprehensive tobacco control programme over a 16-year period. METHODS: Annual cross-sectional surveys randomly sampled adults (aged 26+) in the state of Victoria, Australia, between 2001 and 2016. Until 2010, participants were recruited through random digit dialling to landline telephones; from 2011, sampling frames also included mobile phones. Logistic regressions assessed changes over time in the prevalence of smoking and each hardening indicator; additional ..

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