Journal article

The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

Jane P Messina, Oliver J Brady, Nick Golding, Moritz UG Kraemer, GR William Wint, Sarah E Ray, David M Pigott, Freya M Shearer, Kimberly Johnson, Lucas Earl, Laurie B Marczak, Shreya Shirude, Nicole Davis Weaver, Marius Gilbert, Raman Velayudhan, Peter Jones, Thomas Jaenisch, Thomas W Scott, Robert C Reiner, Simon Hay

Nature Microbiology | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2019

Abstract

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of ..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Grants

Awarded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation


Awarded by International Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment Management and Surveillance (IDAMS; European Commission 7th Framework Programme)


Awarded by National Institute of Child Health and Human Development


Awarded by National Library of Medicine of the National Institutes of Health


Awarded by Henry Wellcome Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust


Awarded by National Institutes of Health


Funding Acknowledgements

S.I.H. is funded by grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1132415). S.I.H. would also like to acknowledge funding support from the International Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment Management and Surveillance (IDAMS; European Commission 7th Framework Programme (21803)), which also supported J.P.M., G.R.W.W., and M.U.G.K. F.M.S. is funded by a scholarship from the Rhodes Trust. M.U.G.K. is supported by the Society in Science, The Branco Weiss Fellowship, administered by the ETH Zurich and acknowledges funding from a Training Grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD040128) and the National Library of Medicine of the National Institutes of Health (R01LM010812, R01LM011965). N.G. is supported by a University of Melbourne McKenzie fellowship. O.J.B. is funded by a Henry Wellcome Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (206471/Z/17/Z). T.W.S and R.C.R are funded by the National Institutes of Health (P01AI098670).