Resistance proportions for eight priority antibiotic- bacterium combinations in OECD, EU/EEA and G20 countries 2000 to 2030: a modelling study
Tiago Cravo Oliveira Hashiguchi, Driss Ait Ouakrim, Michael Padget, Alessandro Cassini, Michele Cecchini
EUROSURVEILLANCE | EUR CENTRE DIS PREVENTION & CONTROL | Published : 2019
BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance is widely considered an urgent global health issue due to associated mortality and disability, societal and healthcare costs.AimTo estimate the past, current and projected future proportion of infections resistant to treatment for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030 for 52 countries.MethodsWe collated data from a variety of sources including ResistanceMap and World Bank. Feature selection algorithms and multiple imputation were used to produce a complete historical dataset. Forecasts were derived from an ensemble of three models: exponential smoothing, linear regression and random forest. The latter two were informed by projec..View full abstract
No funding was received for this study. The OECD programme of work on public health, including work on antimicrobial resistance, is supported by a number of voluntary contributions by Ministries of Health, other national governmental institutions of OECD member countries or other key partners as well other intergovernmental institutions, including the European Union.