Resistance proportions for eight priority antibiotic- bacterium combinations in OECD, EU/EEA and G20 countries 2000 to 2030: a modelling study

Abstract

BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance is widely considered an urgent global health issue due to associated mortality and disability, societal and healthcare costs.AimTo estimate the past, current and projected future proportion of infections resistant to treatment for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030 for 52 countries.MethodsWe collated data from a variety of sources including ResistanceMap and World Bank. Feature selection algorithms and multiple imputation were used to produce a complete historical dataset. Forecasts were derived from an ensemble of three models: exponential smoothing, linear regression and random forest. The latter two were informed by projec..