The drivers of nonlinear local temperature change under global warming
Andrew D King
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | IOP PUBLISHING LTD | Published : 2019
How the pattern of the Earth’s surface warming will change under global warming represents a fundamental question for our understanding of the climate system with implications for regional projections. Despite the importance of this problem there have been few analyses of nonlinear local temperature change as a function of global warming. Individual climate models project nonlinearities, but drivers of nonlinear local change are poorly understood. Here, I present a framework for the identification and quantification of local nonlinearities using a time-slice analysis of a multi-model ensemble. Accelerated local warming is more likely over land than ocean per unit global warming. By examining..View full abstract
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Awarded by Australian Research Council
I thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive feedback on this manuscript and I also thank Todd Lane for useful discussions. I acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council (grant DE180100638). I thank the NCI National Facility in Australia for providing computing support and access to the CMIP5 data. I acknowledge the World Climate Research Program's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output.