Journal article

Incorporating future climate uncertainty into the identification of climate change refugia for threatened species

Linda J Beaumont, Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez, David A Nipperess, Mareshell Wauchope-Drumm, John B Baumgartner



Climate change presents a substantial threat to species unable to keep pace via migration or adaptation. In-situ climate refugia, areas currently occupied by a species and that remain suitable in the future, will be vital for species with dispersal limitations. Ex-situ refugia, areas beyond species' current ranges that remain suitable, may facilitate range shifts or provide options for translocation. Assessing both refugia is a conservation priority. Here, we identify refugia for 319 species threatened in New South Wales, using four plausible scenarios describing futures that are Warmer/Wetter, Warmer/Drier, Hotter/Wetter and Hotter/Little Precipitation change, relative to the present. Using..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by CONACYT

Funding Acknowledgements

Thanks to P. Mitchell, J. Brazill-Boast, T. Auld (New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage) for feedback and advice on this project. Advice on climate data was provided by J. Evans and M. Hutchinson. This project was supported administratively by L. Staas and V. Graham. This project was funded by the New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage-Macquarie University Biodiversity Node. M.E.R. received funding from the CONACYT [no. 251905].