Identifying in situ climate refugia for plant species

Abstract

Identification of refugia from climate change is increasingly considered important for biodiversity conservation, but the distribution of putative refugia may vary across alternative climate scenarios, impeding conservation decision-making. Based on 117 plant species representative of ecoregions within south-eastern Australia, we provide a case study identifying in situ refugia across a spectrum of plausible future climates. We define in situ refugia as areas that currently contain populations of the target species, and are projected to remain climatically suitable in the future. Refugia were identified across scenarios describing futures that are, relative to 1990–2009, warmer and wetter, w..