Journal article
Back to the future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of antarctic climate
TJ Bracegirdle, F Colleoni, NJ Abram, NAN Bertler, DA Dixon, M England, V Favier, CJ Fogwill, JC Fyfe, I Goodwin, H Goosse, W Hobbs, JM Jones, ED Keller, AL Khan, SJ Phipps, MN Raphael, J Russell, L Sime, ER Thomas Show all
Geosciences Switzerland | MDPI | Published : 2019
Open access
Abstract
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of p..
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Funding Acknowledgements
The Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21) Scientific Research Programme of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research are thanked for supporting the international scientific workshop at which the writing of this manuscript was initiated. This is a contribution to the PAGES 2k Network (through the CLIVASH 2k project). NJA acknowledges support by the Australian Research Council through a Future Fellowship (FT160100029) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). SJP was supported under the Australian Research Council's Special Research Initiative for the Antarctic Gateway Partnership (Project ID SR140300001). JMJ acknowledges support from the Leverhulme Trust through a Research Fellowship (RF-2018-183). FC acknowledges support from the PNRA national Italian projects PNRA16_00016, "WHISPERS" and project PNRA_00002, "ANTIPODE". TJB, LS, and ERT were supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) as part of the British Antarctic Survey Polar Science for Planet Earth Programme. TJB additionally acknowledges support for this work as a contribution to the NERC grant NE/N01829X/1. IW thanks FAPESP 2015/50686-1, Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior - Brasil (CAPES) Finance Code 001 and CNPq 300970/2018-8, CNPq INCT Criosfera 704222/2009.