Journal article

Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications

Natalie J Briscoe, Jane Elith, Roberto Salguero-Gomez, Jose J Lahoz-Monfort, James S Camac, Katherine M Giljohann, Matthew H Holden, Bronwyn A Hradsky, Michael R Kearney, Sean M McMahon, Ben L Phillips, Tracey J Regan, Jonathan R Rhodes, Peter A Vesk, Brendan A Wintle, Jian DL Yen, Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita

Ecology Letters | WILEY | Published : 2019


Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems..

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Awarded by ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions

Awarded by ARC Discovery project

Awarded by NERC IRF

Awarded by ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award

Funding Acknowledgements

This study was initiated at a workshop funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CE11001000104) and the BES Quantitative Ecology Special Interest Group. NJB was supported by ARC Discovery project (DP180101852); RSG by a NERC IRF (R/142195-11-1); GGA by ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DE160100904); BAW and BAH by the National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recovery Hub. We thank Nick Golding, Jessica Metcalf and Michael McCarthy for early discussions on this topic, David Wilkinson for assistance reviewing papers, Stuart Elith for vastly improving Figure 1, and Damien Fordham and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and useful suggestions.