Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era

Raphael Neukom; Luis A Barboza; Michael P Erb; Feng Shi; Julien Emile-Geay; Michael N Evans; Jorg Franke; Darrell S Kaufman; Lucie Lucke; Kira Rehfeld; Andrew Schurer; Feng Zhu; Stefan Bronnimann; Gregory J Hakim; Benjamin J Henley; Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist; Nicholas McKay; Veronika Valler; Lucien von Gunten

Journal article

Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era

Raphael Neukom, Luis A Barboza, Michael P Erb, Feng Shi, Julien Emile-Geay, Michael N Evans, Jorg Franke, Darrell S Kaufman, Lucie Lucke, Kira Rehfeld, Andrew Schurer, Feng Zhu, Stefan Bronnimann, Gregory J Hakim, Benjamin J Henley, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Nicholas McKay, Veronika Valler, Lucien von Gunten

NATURE GEOSCIENCE | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2019

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0

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Abstract

Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Pha..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Benjamin Henley Author

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Awarded by Swiss NSF

Awarded by DFG

Awarded by European Union

Awarded by NSFC

Awarded by NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy

Awarded by DELWP on Linkage Project

Awarded by ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Awarded by NERC

Funding Acknowledgements

This is a contribution to the PAGES 2k Network. PAGES is supported by the US National Science Foundation and the Swiss Academy of Sciences. PAGES 2k Network members are acknowledged for providing input proxy data. Some calculations were run on the Ubelix cluster at the University of Bern. S. Hanhijarvi provided the PAI code. M. Grosjean, S.J. Phipps and J. Werner provided inputs at different stages of the project. R.N. is supported by Swiss NSF grant number PZ00P2_154802. K.R. is funded by DFG grant number RE3994-2/1. S. B. acknowledges funding from the European Union (project 787574). F.S. is funded by the NSFC (grants numbers 41877440; 41430531; 41690114). A. S. was supported by NERC under the Belmont forum, Grant PacMedy (grant number NE/P006752/1). B.J.H. acknowledges funding from the Australian Research Council, Melbourne Water and DELWP on Linkage Project (LP150100062) and support from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. B.J.H. also acknowledges support from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023).