Is the long-term decline in cardiovascular-disease mortality in high-income countries over? Evidence from national vital statistics

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The substantial decline in cardiovascular-disease (CVD) mortality in high-income countries has underpinned their increasing longevity over the past half-century. However, recent evidence suggests this long-term decline may have stagnated, and even reversed in younger populations. We assess recent CVD-mortality trends in high-income populations and discuss the findings in relation to trends in risk factors. METHODS: We used vital statistics since 2000 for 23 high-income countries published in the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age-standardized CVD death rates by sex for all ages, and at ages 35-74 years, were calculated and smoothed using LOWESS regression. Findings..