A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified

Joshua Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

OSF Preprints | Published : 2018


The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. In contrast with the previous results, we find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, and that expert observers can predict which shooters have a tendency to become hot.

University of Melbourne Researchers