Pipeline lateral buckling: Realistic modelling of geotechnical variability and uncertainty

Abstract

This paper describes and explores the effects of geotechnical variability and uncertainty on the design of pipelines for thermal buckling and axial walking. Geotechnical input parameters - 'friction factors' - are often assigned extremely wide ranges between low estimates (LE) and high estimates (HE), and these are assumed to apply uniformly along the pipeline in some design steps, or handled probabilistically in others. This paper clarifies the causes of geotechnical variability and uncertainty, identifying effects that are aleatory and epistemic. It proves useful to distinguish these effects on the basis of local and global influences that relate to short parts of the pipeline and the enti..