Equifinality and Flux Mapping: A New Approach to Model Evaluation and Process Representation Under Uncertainty

S Khatami; MC Peel; TJ Peterson; AW Western

Journal article

Equifinality and Flux Mapping: A New Approach to Model Evaluation and Process Representation Under Uncertainty

S Khatami, MC Peel, TJ Peterson, AW Western

Water Resources Research | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2019

DOI: 10.1029/2018WR023750

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Abstract

Uncertainty analysis is an integral part of any scientific modeling, particularly within the domain of hydrological sciences given the various types and sources of uncertainty. At the center of uncertainty rests the concept of equifinality, that is, reaching a given endpoint (finality) through different pathways. The operational definition of equifinality in hydrological modeling is that various model structures and/or parameter sets (i.e., equal pathways) are equally capable of reproducing a similar (not necessarily identical) hydrological outcome (i.e., finality). Here we argue that there is more to model equifinality than model structures/parameters, that is, other model components can gi..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Murray Peel Author

Andrew Western Author

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Funding Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the University of Melbourne and Australian Government in carrying out this research. Sina Khatami is supported by Melbourne International Research and Fee Remission Scholarships (MIRS and MIFRS), Murray Peel is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT120100130), and Tim Peterson jointly funded by Australian Research Council Linkage Project LP130100958, Bureau of Meteorology (Australia), Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (Vic., Australia), Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources (Vic., Australia), and Power and Water Corporation (N.T., Australia). The authors would also like to acknowledge the rigorous yet delightful review process that helped to significantly improve the manuscript by sincerely thanking Andrew Binley for suggesting the use of ternary plots reviewing the first draft of the manuscript, as well as the encouraging and constructive reviews of Hoshin Gupta, Grey Nearing, and two anonymous reviewers. Sina Khatami is extremely grateful to Keith Beven for selflessly giving his time to teaching the excellent course of "Uncertainty in Environmental Modelling," as well as Sven Halldin for administrating it at Department of Earth Sciences at Uppsala University. He is also sincerely thankful to Keirnan Fowler for preparing and sharing the entire rainfallrunoff data set of this study and his occasional feedback throughout the evolution of this work as well as the manuscript. Streamflow data used in this project are from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) Hydrologic Reference Station project website (www.bom.gov.au/hrs).Rainfall data are from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) project (www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/).Potential evapotranspiration data are from the SILO project (www.longpad-dock.qld.gov.au/silo/).