Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts
POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW | SPRINGER | Published : 2016
It is generally accepted by demographers that cohort-component projection models which incorporate directional migration are conceptually preferable to those using net migration. Yet net migration cohort-component models, and other simplified variations, remain in common use by both academics and practitioners because of their simplicity and low data requirements. While many arguments have been presented in favour of using one or other type of model, surprisingly little analysis has been undertaken to assess which tend to give the most accurate forecasts. This paper evaluates five cohort-component models which differ in the way they handle migration, four of which are well known, with one—a ..View full abstract
Awarded by Australian Research Council
Australian Research Council funding for Discovery Project DP150103343 'Improving Subnational Population Forecasts' is gratefully acknowledged.